Thanks to the publisher and Netgalley for this eARC.

In “Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World,” Tom Chivers offers a compelling journey through the lens of Bayes’s theorem, a cornerstone of rational thought and a powerful tool for making sense of uncertainty. Chivers, an acclaimed science writer, presents a user-friendly exploration of a mathematical concept that, while seemingly esoteric, underpins much of our decision-making process in the modern world.

The book is structured around the theorem’s simple yet profound premise: the probability of an event is determined not just by the evidence at hand but also by our prior beliefs and knowledge. Chivers masterfully illustrates this through a variety of real-world applications, from medical diagnostics to legal judgments, showcasing the theorem’s versatility and its potential to lead to both triumphs and missteps when misunderstood or misapplied.

What sets this work apart is Chivers’s ability to fuse biography, history, and technical explanation into a narrative that is as educational as it is entertaining. Readers are treated to a biography of Thomas Bayes, the 18th-century Presbyterian minister and mathematician, whose work has found relevance in fields as diverse as artificial intelligence and epidemiology. The historical context enriches the reader’s understanding of the theorem’s development and its pivotal role in the evolution of statistics.

Chivers’s writing is accessible and engaging, with a wit that enlivens the subject matter. He navigates complex statistical concepts with ease, ensuring that readers, regardless of their mathematical background, can grasp the significance of Bayesian thinking. The book is not just an introduction to a mathematical theory but an invitation to view the world through a Bayesian lens, recognizing patterns and probabilities in the chaos of everyday life.

“Everything Is Predictable” is a testament to the power of a single idea to reshape our understanding of the world. It is a must-read for anyone interested in the intersection of mathematics, philosophy, and the pursuit of knowledge. Chivers has not only written an ingenious introduction to Bayesian statistics but has also provided readers with a new framework for considering the predictability of the unpredictable.

Seriously, more people should read books about science for fun. If people tried books like this, they'd understand what they're missing.
Sure, there is math, but this book is really about how predicting things and wanting to be able to predict things is part of everyday life for everyone. Even something ad simple as how we perceive color can depend on what we expect to see.
The book is conversational and hilarious in places, especially when talking about scientists. My favorite might be the group of scientists who made up their own songs about statistics.
Thanks so much to NetGalley for letting me read this

I thoroughly enjoyed this book. I found the writing to be conversational and the explanations clear. Chivers made excellent use of analogies. The book could have lapsed into a treatise on math but it didn’t. The book maintained an even pacing, with frequent injections of subject-related humour. I also appreciated all the biographical information. My advance reader copy was provided by the publisher via Netgalley in exchange for an honest review.