Turnaround

Thirty years ago, China seemed hopelessly mired in poverty, Mexico triggered the Third World Debt Crisis, and Brazil boasted one of the world’s highest rates of inflation. Since then, these and other developing countries have turned themselves around, while First World nations, battered by economic and fiscal crises, depend more than ever on sustained growth in emerging markets. The future prosperity of the global economy hinges on our combined ability to learn the lessons that emerge from prior struggles with economic reform.

In TURNAROUND: Third World Lessons for First World Growth (Basic Books; March 12, 2013), economist Peter Blair Henry argues that the secret to emerging countries’ success (and ours) is discipline—sustained commitment to a pragmatic growth strategy. With the global economy teetering on the brink, the stakes are higher than ever. And precisely because the stakes are so high, for poor and rich nations alike, there is a dire need for less polarization and more focus on facts to answer the fundamental question: which policy reforms, implemented under what circumstances, actually increase economic efficiency and help countries make the most of their scarce resources?

Pushing past the tired, ideologically driven debates, Henry uses objective stock market analysis to assess policy outcomes. Stock markets reflect collective wisdom about the future impact of economic reforms, providing forecasts that are an important complement to traditional measures of policy effectiveness. Through a variety of examples, ranging from the drastic income disparity between Barbados and his native Jamaica to the “catch up” economics of China and the taming of inflation in Latin America, Henry shows that in much of the emerging world the policy pendulum now swings in the direction of prudence and self-control. With similar discipline and a dash of humility, he concludes, the First World may yet recover and create long-term prosperity for all its citizens.

“A riveting tour of postwar world growth, replete with policy successes and devastating mistakes, Turnaround is essential reading for anyone willing to be convinced that learning should be a two-way street between advanced and developing economies.”

—Michael Spence, Nobel Laureate in Economics (2001)

“A compelling analysis of the trends that are transforming emerging markets and a practical assessment of what it all means for the global economy.”

—Kenneth I. Chenault, Chairman and CEO, American Express Company

“Tempering the ‘dismal science’ with a healthy dose of optimism, Turnaround exposes sobering realities of the world economy, yet paints a hopeful picture of prosperity for the countries of Africa and, indeed, all nations.”

—Her Excellency Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, President of Liberia and Nobel Peace Laureate (2011)

“A child of the Third World risen to First World academic prominence, Peter Henry effectively bridges both worlds, offering a vision of what leaders can achieve if they take the long road, implementing sensible economic policies with accountability, integrity, and persistence.”

—Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Minister of Finance of Nigeria

“Turnaround is not only highly readable, it ought to be read by specialists and by policymakers who will inevitably have to deal with the issues that Henry so expertly analyzes.”

—Stanley Fischer, Governor of the Bank of Israel

“A timely, provocative, and instructive book for policymakers, CEOs, and ordinary citizens alike. It’s a new world, and Peter Henry shares the lessons with us all.”

—Tom Brokaw, NBC News Special Correspondent and author of The Time of Our Lives