Self-driving cars, or more broadly, autonomous vehicles (AVs) are really cool. I’m excited to see them become a reality. Nevertheless, there is a lot of hype around this topic. It seems like most of what I read about the subject comes from someone connected to the tech industry or the auto industry (or both), and that always makes me suspicious. No One at the Wheel: Driverless Cars and the Road of the Future is a tonic to that. This eARC was provided by NetGalley and the publisher in exchange for a review, and here it is: Samuel I. Schwartz seems like a smart dude who gets it.

The main draw of this book, for me, is hands down simply this: it is written by a transportation engineer, not an autonomous vehicle evangelist. Schwartz knows what he’s talking about, but he knows it from the perspective of pavement and traffic flow, not AI algorithms or engine efficiency tweaks. He is enthusiastic about the benefits of AVs, and he discusses those at length—but he also has a lot of questions and apprehension, which he lays out in a systematic and thoughtful way as well. In short, No One at the Wheel is a nuanced look at what the future of traffic might be like in a society that uses AVs.

Schwartz opens with a history lesson. I was fascinated by this, and this is why I love reading non-fiction. We are so used to “the way things are” that it’s easy to forget that there was always a transitional period. There was a time when automobiles were new, and people needed radio jingles to be educated not to jaywalk and get hit by a car … wow. More importantly, Schwartz points out how many early traffic laws (and regulations concerning pedestrians) ended up shaped by the automotive industry lobby. Also, he notes that interest in self-driving vehicles started almost as soon as we had automotive vehicles in general.

After the history lesson, Schwartz examines why AVs might be desirable. He notes the mobility and accessibility benefits. As a transportation engineer, though, his main question concerns whether AVs will improve traffic flow, reduce congestion, and generally be better for roads. The evangelists want the answer to be a resounding yes, but Schwartz demonstrates that this is actually a difficult question to answer. For example, AVs should be better drivers, so they can drive in more tightly confined lanes (narrower roads are a win), more closely together—thereby reducing congestion, right? Except that maybe more people will use AVs, which could increase congestion and road deterioration. Or maybe AVs will be so busy stopping and starting for pedestrians who, knowing the AV has to stop for them, step into the middle of the road that the AVs will actually be slower than a human-driven vehicle. So many possibilities to consider.

Schwartz also gets into the ethical ramifications of AVs and collisions, etc. He covers the Trolley Problem. Whatever. That stuff isn’t as interesting to me now—it’s interesting in general, but it’s not what I’m for; I’ve read it before.

The book really picks up whenever Schwartz considers how AVs affect city planning. Drawing again on history, he examines how we went from cities with no cars to cities built around cars and where we might go in the future. I loved his commentary on the differences between cities with “walkable” downtowns and cities without. For example, he points out that while people with cars tend to spend more per visit, pedestrians and cyclists tend to go to more stores because parking is less of an issue. This totally resonates with me: although I have a vehicle, I like to walk to the downtown as much as possible, because I hate finding parking. I’d rather walk down there and walk to each store, even if it takes a little more effort. Except now, it’s winter, so … yeah, no.

Many books in this vein are also relentlessly focused on the United States to the point of tunnel vision. This shouldn’t be notable, but it is: No One at the Wheel takes a more global perspective. Schwartz discusses American traffic, but he also talks about European, Australian, Indian, etc. traffic. He’s very careful to point out that AVs are not going to be adopted at the same pace or in the same way all over the world, and different jurisdictions with different cultures and histories are going to react differently. I appreciate this attention to detail from an American book by an American author.

At the end of the day, Schwartz’s thesis and biases are fairly clear. It isn’t so much about being pro- or anti-AV. Rather, he wants good transportation options for people. He wants AVs to be part of a larger, more holistic traffic strategy, rather than the be-all, end-all strategy, or something thought of as distinct or disjoint from the rest of traffic. Every example he brings up, every anecdote he shares from his experiences as an engineer and traffic commissioner, every point he makes, drives this home (pun intended): if we are to make the most of what AVs can do for us, we must consider how we can use AVs to make transit overall accessible, mobile, and affordable, instead of just letting AVs “happen” to us.

No One at the Wheel is an interesting, dynamic, thoughtful, and compassionate book by someone who knows what they’re talking about. It took my casual interest in autonomous vehicles and educated me, gave me lots to think about, and in some cases actually caused me to rethink a few of my opinions (I have largely been very pro-AV, but Schwartz has helped explain some of the possible negative side-effects of AVs that until now I kind of brushed aside). If this is a topic that you want to learn more about, then this book will help you achieve that goal.

It will be the best of times. It will be the worst of times. How will your life change when there is No One at the Wheel?

“Most transportation experts say that by 2075 driven cars will be completely replaced...By 2035, we may find that the majority of driving miles are completed by machines, not humans.”

In 2018, 1.3 million people are projected to die in road crashes with 50 million more injured. The need for a solution is clear. Autonomous vehicles are coming. Every major automobile company has one in development.

Will the resulting society be a utopia of staring at your phone continuously while your car drives you to work with no risk of accidents? Or will it cause massive disruption in the economy and overcrowded roadways? What will the one out of seven US residents who work in transportation do for a living? How will they be retrained and who will fund it? The decisions made now will determine our later fate.

No One at the Wheel shares the pros and cons of this new technological development. By making analogies to the development of the original cars, the author paints a dim view of the future of driven cars—as bleak as that of a horse and carriage in 1940.

I found both the history of cars and the potential of autonomous vehicles fascinating. But I’m still unsure what I can do personally to ensure a rosy outcome. No One at the Wheel is recommended for futurists and historians in equal measure. 3 stars.

Thanks to the publisher, PublicAffairs, and NetGalley for an advance copy in exchange for an honest review.

With a background in traffic engineering, it is easy to understand why author Samuel I. Schwartz is a proponent of autonomous vehicles (AV). However, by the end of the book I came to realize that Mr. Schwartz has taken the same hard-eyed approach to this technology as he applied during his years of service to New York City.

Even people who have the smallest amount of knowledge about the coming AV evolution have strong opinions about it. Some welcome this future while others are adamant about not riding in cars without a human driver. Mr. Schwartz is extremely educated on this topic, one that appears inevitable in one form or another. As with any major change, questions present themselves, some of which may not be solved before an army of autonomous vehicles are on the streets.

Mr. Schwartz is not afraid to get his hands dirty, and one of the final chapters deals with the moralistic aspects, including who may be held accountable for accidents and fatalities. When one considers the myriad possibilities in the potential programming of these vehicles, including more loss of personal privacy, it is easier to understand the precarious balancing job people will have when deciding what programming the “driver” should adhere to in different situations.

The writing is deep without being dry, multi-faceted without an overwhelming mountain of detail. This future is quickly becoming our “Now,” and this book contains more than enough knowledge to enable readers to understand exactly what is racing our way. Recommended. Five stars.

I got a free advance review copy of this book from NetGalley and wrote a Washington-DC-centric review of it for the blog Greater Greater Washington. URL: https://ggwash.org/view/68951/no-one-at-the-wheel-foretells-the-self-driving-future-and-how-cities-prepare

Or read it below:

“Autonomous vehicles, or AVs, will be the most disruptive technology to hit society worldwide since the advent of the motorcar,” says No One at the Wheel, a forthcoming book co-authored by New York-based transportation consultant and journalist Samuel I. Schwartz, a.k.a. columnist “Gridlock Sam” of the New York Daily News. For once, governments have a chance to get ahead of a major technological disruption, if they can summon the will to do so.

Schwartz and journalist Karen Kelly provide a roadmap for private and public stakeholders who want to do it right. Some of their major points are:

1. “Communities could lose cash – and replace it if they're smart.” Schwartz and Kelly cite a study using 2016 data in Governing Magazine that says AVs will cost DC $502 per capita annual revenue from decreasing speeding and parking tickets, gas taxes, vehicle registration and licensing, and other fees. (This is the second-highest per capita figure for a major US metro area, after San Francisco.)

Some of that money can be recouped by taxing and licensing autonomous vehicle services, but these fees by themselves won't be enough. Cities will have to wisely repurpose former parking lots and driving land for activities that will get the public out into the town square generating sales tax revenue, and into downtown properties generating hotel and real estate tax revenue.

2. “[T]here is a good way to proceed and a bad way to proceed”: Uber, a leader in AV development, more than tripled its DC lobbying costs from $314,000 in 2014 to $1.36 million for 2016. Schwartz and Kelly predict that Uber and others in the AV industry will combine aggressive lobbying with pricing wars until it controls an area, undercutting transportation alternatives to drive them out of business, then raising prices. That's the bad way.

he good way is for governments to recognize that a “balanced” optimal solution will improve quality of life. “We can walk short distances, bike medium distances, take transit in cities, and use AVs for longer trips. We need a mix of modes of transport, not reliance on AVs to do it all.”

3. "The future of traffic hinges on ownership”: Schwartz and Kelly present a nightmare scenario where gas-guzzling “mobile McMansions” become the norm and invade every bit of available green space. “[S]ome AVs, if privately owned, could be the size of Winnebagoes: who doesn't want to travel with a refrigerator, massage chair, and stationary bike comfortably within reach?”

How people view AV ownership – as something to be prized or a hassle – will be the single greatest determining factor in whether city congestion improves or deteriorates. If car ownership continues to be seen as a vital rite of passage, congestion will worsen. If people can start to see mobility as a service, provided by fleets of AVs, then there will be fewer vehicles on the road, being used more efficiently.

To get passengers to use fleet-owned AVs consistently, cities need to determine what the maximum wait-time is for the average passenger. The authors guess five minutes, which means that “vehicles would have to be strategically placed in and around towns and cities.” To encourage this goal, the authors suggest that city governments could set discounts on operating or licensing fees if a fleet meets or exceeds a wait-time goal, or even impose fines on underperforming fleets.

The region has the opportunity to do this right

The DC metropolitan area has a lousy record of proactively meeting tech-caused disruptions caused by the likes of Uber and Airbnb. It has a chance to get it right this time. The question is not if AVs are coming, but when.

Schwartz and Kelly say: “By 2025, hands-free driving may be as common as E-Zpass tags became in the early 1990s. By 2035, we may find the majority of driving miles are completed by machines, not humans. It actually doesn't matter when exactly the driven car will disappear – the lead-up to complete replacement will be a shock to our system, and we need to be prepared.”

No One at the Wheel, by Samuel I. Schwartz with Karen Kelly, will be published in paper and ebook formats in November 2018 by Public Affairs Books. This post is based on an advanced electronic galley copy of the book. The final text may differ.

Popular science writing, not just about how autonomous vehicles might work, but the social and economic changes they are likely to bring, from lowered accident rates and commuters able to sleep or entertain themselves, to economic displacement, eroding of public transportation systems and hacking.