How can we possibly know what's true when we're bombarded by studies and opinions and research and talking heads at every turn? This was a good start to acquiring the tools we need to sort and evaluate all that. I found myself thinking of people who need this book, but I don't know if they'd ever consider themselves as needing it. Then I thought maybe I'm one of the ones who needs it! It really wouldn't hurt anyone to honestly look at how they form, keep and defend their opinions.

THIRD MILLENNIUM THINKING by Saul Perlmutter, John Campbell, and Robert MacCoun is based on a successful multidisciplinary course at UC Berkeley taught by a physicist, a philosopher, and a psychologist, respectively. The authors' goal is "Creating Sense in a World of Nonsense" by teaching and writing about using science and thinking tools to make better decisions. They begin by exploring how to build trust in a shared understanding of reality. Subsequent sections deal with applying probabilistic thinking and a "radical can-do stance." The final areas they delve into include mental traps (the ways our personal thinking tends to go wrong) and then how we can better solve problems with others. Throughout, these professors offer multiple "hands on" examples which greatly increase the ability of readers to understand and relate to their key points. They also suggest exercises (e.g., accompany every statement of fact with an indication of degree of confidence) to further help readers in attempt to offer "a good translation -- a clear and concise explanation that expresses the scientific approach in an accessible way, and that illuminates its practical uses in everyday life." I sincerely hope that this text has a wide readership, but I fear it will be mostly read by people who are already very concerned about our ability to find common understandings and who agree with the authors that "we need to learn to accept the possibility of errors in our own thinking, and our need for opposing views that help us see where we are going wrong."

A physicist, a philosopher, and a psychologist walk into a bar…. That is what my husband said when I told him about this book and its authors. I don’t know exactly what inspired the authors of this book to pool their expertise to recommend tools to help us address the challenges of today’s world, but the result is interesting, thought-provoking, and, I think, useful .
Third Millenium Thinking presents a number of the scientific tools of physics and psychology and discusses how to apply them to today’s world in both our personal lives and in the broader society. In addition, the authors realize that we need to employ problem-solving techniques that allow us to consider our values as well as more obvious or more easily measurable objectives. Many of the techniques recommended are real-world applications to fairly well-known issues, like the excellent chapter on confirmation bias ( the tendency to overvalue information that favors our existing beliefs or values) ; some techniques were new to me, like deliberative polling. I was especially taken by blind analysis, especially the application to personal medicine, in which a patient would not let a second doctor know what the first doctor said until he or she made their own diagnosis. The authors offer examples both from the scientific uses of the techniques described and from potential third millennium applications.
The last chapter, Rebooting Trust for a New Millennium, includes a summation list of the Habits of Mind and Habits of Community we need to practice to implement third millennium thinking techniques presented throughout the book, like thinking probabilistically rather than in true/false binaries on the personal level and adopting effective procedures for deliberation on the community level.
When writing a book with sophisticated ideas and techniques, especially when these have been developed by a multidisciplinary team, a big challenge is how to make the presentation understandable to all readers without making us feel the authors are talking down to us. Overall, I think they did a good job. I was a bit insulted at times, e.g., apparently they thought the readers would not know what osteoporosis is, but most explanations are aimed at the level of an intelligent person who simply does not know the tool or topic in question.
As would be expected in a book that covers a number of different topics and tools, some of these seemed more applicable or more interesting than others, but there is a lot to enjoy and to apply in many situations. I don’t know if the authors really did walk into a bar, but if I should ever see them in one, I would certainly buy them a round!
I received an advance review copy of this book from NetGalley and Little Brown Spark.