Dr. Jagadish Shukla is an Indian meteorologist and Distinguished University Professor at George Mason University. Born in 1944 in the village of Middha in Uttar Pradesh, India, he went from a village with no electricity, roads, or any primary school building to become a Distinguished University Professor at George Mason University, USA, where he founded the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences and Climate Dynamics PhD Program.

Shukla had key early interactions with Jule Charney, the American meteorologist who played an important role in developing numerical weather prediction and increasing understanding of the general circulation of the atmosphere by devising a series of increasingly sophisticated mathematical models of the atmosphere. His work was the driving force behind many national and international weather initiatives and programs.
Charney walked up to my table. And while several people lined up to speak with the famous meteorologist, he spent the next several minutes with me, explaining some of the new work he had done on tropical atmospheres. I was so surprised, I could hardly concentrate on his words. All I could think was that the work I had done at the IITM—where my colleagues were already predicting I would take over as director general one day—paled in comparison to the brilliant science happening in other parts of the world. It wasn’t just Charney; it was every talk I had heard that day. Suddenly, the limits of my own trajectory in India seemed perfectly visible. Charney asked me to follow him to his hotel room so that he could give me a preprint of his latest paper. The people waiting to speak to him followed us too, and when we got to Charney’s suite, we found it covered in papers and books. Later I would learn that Charney was in the midst of planning the Global Weather Experiment; that’s why he was buried in paperwork and in especially high demand among his fellow scientists that day. All those people trailing us down the corridors of the hotel were the luminaries of the weather world. By the time we said goodbye, I felt something new taking root inside me—that confidence, that certainty I had been lacking. I had stumbled into the conference by accident, but I left with a new sense of purpose.


From his beginnings where there was a real need for seasonal monsoon prediction, he developed professionally during the 1970s, when the
...Things were worse in Mirdha, where even my family was short of food, something that had rarely happened during my childhood. As I looked around our struggling village, my thoughts were far away, in the MIT classrooms I had left behind. Surely a phenomenon this extreme and widespread had been heralded somehow. Nature could not be so cruel, I thought, as not to offer us a way to anticipate its life-sustaining variations.


Shukla recognized the importance of land surface processes in climate variability and predictability and established the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA). In the early 1980s to worked to carry out retrospective analysis of atmospheric observations to validate climate models.
the US Weather Bureau, where [Syukuro "Suki" Manabe] had begun work in 1958. In 1966, Suki used a model to run a deceptively simple calculation designed to investigate the relationship between greenhouse gases and the temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere. He found that in his model , increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from three parts per ten thousand to six parts per ten thousand increased the surface temperature of the Earth by a staggering 4 degrees Fahrenheit (Suki was the first researcher to model anthropogenic global warming, and it earned the Japanese scientist a Nobel Prize in Physics many decades later).

...

the experiment landed in the climate community like a grenade. For centuries, the common wisdom was that water that evaporated from the ocean was the source of rainfall over land. But what we had shown was that, since land-surface conditions and evaporation from land accounted for a stunning 65 percent of annual average rainfall, land was an essential component of the global hydrological cycle. As it turned out, the land didn’t passively receive the weather; it actively created it. It was an almost heretical idea.


Shukla succeeded in realizing his vision for crucial dynamical seasonal prediction:
...a new chapter in dynamical seasonal prediction had been written. It was also a momentous occasion in my own career. Soon after the successful prediction of the 1997/ 1998 El Niño, Ants Leetmaa, head of the climate prediction group at NOAA, started a lecture in Miami with this joke: “I have heard a rumor that Shukla would retire only after the dynamical seasonal prediction problem is solved. Perhaps it is time for Shukla to think about retiring?”

...

were well aware from past observations that intense El Niños produced severe monsoon droughts over India, like the 1972 drought I had experienced while visiting my village during graduate school. When the Indian authorities asked me confidentially for my opinion about the 1997 monsoon season for India, I confidently supported the conventional wisdom—confirmed by the models—that the 1997 monsoon season would be a drought year for India. Well, nature has its own way of keeping scientists in their place—I was wrong; we all were, and 1997 was a normal monsoon rainfall season for India. Some suggested Lorenz’s butterflies were at work again, fiddling with our hard-won model. Some research indicated that the influence of El Niño was neutralized by the Indian Ocean temperatures, which were not correctly predicted in 1997.

...

We do not see thunderstorms all the time even though moist air is always present because, in addition to the heating of the ground, we need vertical profiles of temperature and moisture in the atmosphere so that the moist air has the buoyancy to keep going up and up; these are not always present. The physical and dynamical processes that cause the lifting of the surface air to produce storms in the tropical regions are different than the processes that produce storms in the extratropical regions. That is why our ability to predict weather differs between tropical and extratropical regions.


Eunice Newton Foote was an American scientist, inventor, and women's rights campaigner. She was the first scientist to identify the insulating effect of certain gases, and that therefore rising carbon dioxide levels could increase atmospheric temperature and affect climate, a phenomenon now referred to as the greenhouse effect. Shukla acknowledges how she has been overlooked for recognition due as he charts his own journey from climate change skeptic to advocate for a vigorous response to avoid calamity.
For reasons that are unclear but probably easy to guess, Eunice Newton Foote, an American scientist and women’s rights advocate, did not give this presentation, despite having thought up the experiment, performed it, and written the paper. Perhaps that’s why Foote’s name and this experiment—conducted in her Saratoga Springs home and motivated by her own curiosity and desire to be useful to science—has largely been lost to history. Despite the fact that her pioneering work took place several years before that of the man who has long been credited with discovering the greenhouse effect (Irish physicist John Tyndall), several decades before Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius made his observations on carbon dioxide, and almost a century before Guy Callendar connected the increase of atmospheric CO2 with global warming, most people—including me—hadn’t heard her name. Shamefully, this is not an uncommon phenomenon in science. (Not to mention society at large. In my own house, my parents gave a much higher priority to my brother and me than to our two younger sisters, who were married off as young teenagers.) Who knows how many other women—scientists, amateur scientists, students, lab assistants, or the overlooked wives of famous scholars—contributed to the field of climate science without recognition.

...

My conversion from ambivalence to acceptance of global warming happened quickly. In an air-conditioned auditorium, surrounded by almost five hundred scientists representing nearly three-quarters of the countries on earth, I sat in a dumbfounded silence as expert after expert after expert after expert took the podium and delivered the sobering news from their corners

...

in 2006, as my IPCC duties were ongoing, COLA colleagues Tim DelSole, Mike Fennessy, Jim Kinter, Dan Paolino, and I designed a study that would satisfy my desire to rank those twenty-three models and find out if there was a relationship between how good each model was and how much global warming it predicted. In essence, we would examine the performance of each model in simulating the past one hundred years for which we have observations and see how accurately it recreated the past conditions. Then we would see how much future warming that model predicted. We had absolutely no basis to know what the result of this study would be. When we analyzed the data, we saw that the quote-unquote best models consistently predicted greater degrees of warming, to the tune of 4 to 5 degrees Celsius, a catastrophic rise in temperature. It was a very simple calculation with a very frightening result, and one we thought the world would like to know about. As it turns out, we were wrong on that last point. When we sent our paper— which warned that “projected global warming due to increasing CO2 is likely to be closer to the highest projected estimates among the current generation of climate models”— to Science, one of the reviewers argued against including it in the journal, saying it would cause panic. This reviewer, a scientist of great reputation, called me a few days after its rejection to tell me it wasn’t just society he was worried about but my own well-being. Climate deniers would make my life miserable for authoring such a paper, he warned. The paper was readily published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters in 2006. Since our IPCC team had the responsibility to assess all published papers, I was sure we would highlight this rather significant result in our report. Instead, a fellow lead author, a scientist from the US Department of Energy, objected. He argued that we might be accused of privileging IPCC members. Suddenly, it felt like I had switched places with the scientists I had once thought too alarmist. I felt like I couldn’t get anyone to listen to me. (Looking back, the conclusions of the papers have stood the test of time.)


Per the IPCC report, “unmitigated climate change would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed and human systems to adapt”. This was a wakeup call to many and Senator Sheldon Whitehouse proposed a RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act) investigation. Shukla added his voice in this direction and rightwing pundits and fossil fuel-funded congressmen came down hard on him for his efforts. Key in this was a letter signed by 20 peers. This resulted in attacks on Shukla’s handling of federal funds.
We appreciate that you are making aggressive and imaginative use of the limited tools available to you in the face of a recalcitrant Congress. One additional tool—recently proposed by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse—is a RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act) investigation of corporations and other organizations that have knowingly deceived the American people about the risks of climate change, as a means to forestall America’s response to climate change. The actions of these organizations have been extensively documented in peer-reviewed academic research (Brulle, 2013) and in recent books including: Doubt is their Product (Michaels, 2008), Climate Cover-Up (Hoggan & Littlemore, 2009), Merchants of Doubt (Oreskes & Conway, 2010), The Climate War (Pooley, 2010), and in The Climate Deception Dossiers (Union of Concerned Scientists, 2015). We strongly endorse Senator Whitehouse’s call for a RICO investigation.


Shukla sees a path forward and hope for us based on how we previously succeeded in handling the issue of ozone-depleting CFCs.
I believe that to manage and mitigate climate change we need three things, and the good news is that we already have the first two well in hand. First, we need to understand the science. Check. Second, we need the technology that allows us to stop pumping the air full of carbon dioxide. Check. Third, we need the will to listen to the science and embrace the technology. It is only on this last point that we are stuck, thanks to the corporate greed that has parasitized our political system. Just forty years ago, society found itself in a very similar situation. Chlorofluorocarbons, a harmful greenhouse gas used in foams, aerosols, and air conditioners, had torn a hole in the ozone layer, the planet’s natural protection against the sun’s damaging radiation. Fixing it required listening to the scientists issuing dire warnings, developing new technologies, and calling for action. In 1987, just two years after the hole was detected, forty-six countries entered into the Montreal Protocol, committing to phasing out harmful chlorofluorocarbons. In 2008, it was the first and only UN environmental agreement to be ratified by every country in the world. Today, virtually all ozone-depleting substances have been phased out of production...

That old saying, "Everyone talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it," is no longer true! Dr. Jagadish Shukla recognized a problem unpredictable weather was causing people of his small village in India and decided to do something about it! Thanks to Shukla and other climate scientists, we can now predict with some certainty whether you should plan for a picnic next week or not, and more importantly, if the annual monsoon storms in India (and in my area, Phoenix, AZ) will be a bust or a blast.

If you'd told me that a book about weather would be this fascinating, I'd have scoffed. But it is! Partly because it's not just about the weather. It's a memoir, an adventure, a world tour, a mystery, a world tour, and a textbook, but one I'd recommend schools use to teach about weather and climate. It's a fantastic read that I'm recommending to everyone I talk to. I find myself bringing up topics discussed in the book in casual conversations. There is so much to love about this book.

Shukla's writing is clear and a delight to read. I found myself highlighting passages just for the sheer beauty of the prose. Many, many thanks to NetGalley and the publisher for an advanced copy of this incredible book. I am hopeful thjat Dr. Shukla will find time to write another!

A Billion Butterflies is my first non-fiction of the year and its completely out of my comfort zone: weather prediction and how the system came to be. This novel was equal parts science and memoir. I was not expecting that, but it was a lovely surprise. I loved learning about Dr. Shukla's upbringing in rural India. This book is not something I would typically gravitate towards (you have the cover to thank for me picking this one up) and I am so thankful I did. The last 1/4 of the book was an interesting turn talking about the vitriol thrown his way with the current administration and their lack of trust in science at the highest rate than it has ever been. I am so thankful for getting the opportunity to read this book especially during our current political climate. I feel like this such an important one because as the verbiage goes, we can't know where we are headed if we don't remember where we have been.

This is a very interesting book, a combination memoir and science discovery. I enjoyed the informative first part of the book on Shukla growing up in India. Then I was fascinated by all the information I learned about weather forecasting and how it was developed. Then there was the chaos theory and the butterfly effect. Forecasting came to include information from ocean temperatures and eventually satellite data. Shukla's interest was primarily in monsoon prediction and seasonal forecasts. When the effect on climate of carbon in the atmosphere was proven, he also included it in his studies. It was heartbreaking to read how he was treated by climate deniers and those funded by the fossil fuel industry.

I like Shukla's writing style. The climate and weather information in the book is very readable. I will think of Shukla and the work he and his co-scientists did when I look at that convenient forecast on my weather app.

I received a complimentary egalley of this book from the publisher. My comments are an independent and honest review.

One of the best nonfiction books about climate change that has ever been written!

Readers need to buy this, read it, talk about it, and use Dr. Jagadish Shukla as an example for how we all should be behaving in a world that is changing and needs our help.

The research in this book is impeccable and the mix of personal stories just makes it more heartfelt and readable.

I adored this memoir. I don't think I would recommend it widely though. The topic of climate/weather forecasting models would be too dry for a general audience. This book does not have the same pitfalls of other science memoirs though. In general, I find in this genre that the "memoir" sections can be rather boring (which is to be expected for a life long academic), but Dr. Shukla has lived a fascinating life from growing up in a rural village in India with no school house to taking on Fox News as a climate activist and scientific advisor to multiple governments.

Imagine living through famines and wondering why no one seemed to be able to forecast dry years before they happened. This was the driving force behind Dr Jagadish Shukla’s research in meteorology and climate. Ge knew the current models weren’t working, but there were no other alternatives. A Billion Butterflies is both an autobiography and a retrospective of Shukla’s research, question the chaotic climate model, proposing and then proving that there were physical forces that were so strong they overwhelmed any chaotic effects. Such a change in meteorological paradigms upended much of the work done in the weather forecasting world.

The writing shares time between life in India and research in the US, although as the book continues, the emphasis is more heavily weighted towards research, which includes the work, but also the politics involved in the continued support of his research. This included dealing with those who had a vested interest in trying to stymie any future work.

While the book is dealing with a scientific subject, Dr Shukla’s does an excellent job of describing the meteorological aspects of his research, making it available for anyone with an interest in weather and climate.

Four stars, highly recommended.

This is the most emotional science book I think I've ever read. Dr. Shukla talks about how he became interested in weather and climate because of his experiences growing up very poor in India, and I enjoyed how he spoke about his parents more than anything else. HIs father was so proud of him and never got to see how much he achieved.
From classes in a cow shed to his doctorate at MIT, Dr Shukla's journey is inspiring, but he continued to achieve more and more, working with scientists and even receiving an award from NASA for his outstanding contributions. His description of the conditions in his field are important and should not be ignored, and his explanation of the science behind climate change is clear and understandable.

A deeply moving scientific search that integrates a poignant memoir. This is unlike any other science related book I've read, as it adds a sense of humanity. Than you Dr. Shukla for sharing your story and knowledge. This was truly impactful.

Pre-Read notes

I misjudged this cover and title! I was even surprised to discover this book was nonfiction. But climate change is a subject of interest for me. So far so good!

Final Review:

Review summary and recommendations

Honestly, I hardly noticed when this book ended. It's because the text covers several different subjects and I didn't get a chance to really connect to any one of them. A big reason is because the text struggles to relate the subtopics to each other. Even transitions from one subject to another feel rocky.

A Billion Butterflies is about 4 things, really– climate science, butterflies, the author's personal and professional history, and the ins and outs of India's applied science industry. If any of these subjects interest you (I came for the science 🧪 and butterflies 🦋), you'll probably find something of interest here. But maybe not *much* of interest if you, like me, find the organization to distract from the point.

Reading Notes

Two things I loved:

1. Another word for expected weather is mean climate. The standard method to calculate mean climate at any point on Earth for any hour of the day is to take an average of all the weather data at that point for that hour for the previous thirty years. That is why you often read that climate is the average of weather. p88 This is the most accessible description of the concept of climate that I've ever encountered.

2. This book is definitely most interesting to me when Shukla examines the intersection of climate science and data science. He said that such a global gridded data set did not exist. What he meant was that the raw observations, taken from ships and weather stations scattered about randomly, had not been arranged into tidy rows of latitudes and longitudes, and that was the gridded data that computer models needed. p114

Three quibbles:

1. While there is a great deal of information here about climate, it's not always clear to me how the material supports or contributes to the book's overarching idea, or even what that idea is. History of climate science? Memoir of a climate scientist? Analysis of contemporary climate policy? Check to all these.

2. Because it's so formal and not organized well, it's a bit of a slog.

Notes

1. Many years later, Manabe received some blowback for not making a bigger deal about those results, but my friend insisted that he was a scientist, not an activist. Besides, Manabe’s model might have depicted a frightening future, but it didn’t offer insight on whether humans might be able to adapt or what kinds of policies should be enacted to reduce emissions. The other thing it didn’t provide was unequivocal confidence. p179 This raising an excellent question. *Do* scientist have a professional obligation to get public attention for significant findings? I don't think it's in any way enforceable, but I do think they have a professional ethical obligation to share findings that affect the health and safety of this whole world. Do you? Would love to hear your thoughts in the comments!

Rating: ☔🌤️🌪️.5 /5 climate events
Recommend? yes
Finished: Apr 24 '25
Format: accessible digital arc, NetGalley
Read this book if you like:
📰 nonfiction
🧪 popular science books
📈 reading about data
☃️ climate science
🗣️ memoir

Thank you to the author Dr. Jagadish Shukla, publishers St. Martin's Press, and NetGalley for an accessible digital arc of A BILLION BUTTERFLIES. All views are mine.
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This book is not just about climate and meteorology. There is quite a bit about the Indian culture which I found intriguing.
I enjoyed the historical aspect as well as the scientific information shared by the author.
Perfect reading for those that are into checking the weather forecast throughout the day.

Thank you for the opportunity to read this book for my honest review. All opinions expressed are my own.

I’m thankful to NetGalley and the publisher for giving me an e-arc.

I’m a lover of all kinds of weather and am very thankful to Dr. Shukla’s contribution to meteorology. This book gives you some insight as to what his life was like and the politics that can come when dealing with climate change.

I recommend it for anyone who checks the weather forecast daily. 🙂

I thought this was going to read more like nonfiction vs. a memoir, but I was pleasantly surprised with the mix Dr. Shukla does for this novel. The mix of his upbringing and why he starts working in meteorology along with the science and facts was well done. You never stayed in one section too long before getting thrown back to the factual aspect or personal aspect for Shukla. The science parts are not too textbook either. Dr. Shukla makes the topics easy to digest and understand without a background in meteorology. The amount of work Dr. Shukla has done for meteorology is astounding and I learned so much more than I expected to.

All in all, as a meteorology geek, I absolutely loved this book. I think anyone interested in meteorology or climate would really enjoy this one.

A Billion Butterflies is a thoughtful, well-paced memoir that highlights both the personal and professional journey of Dr. Jagadish Shukla—one of the key figures behind modern weather forecasting. His story begins in a rural village in India with no electricity or formal schooling and follows his path to becoming an internationally respected climate scientist.

What stands out is how Shukla balances the science with his life story. He doesn’t overwhelm the reader with technical jargon, but still offers a clear look at how seasonal weather prediction evolved and why it matters. His role in advancing climate models and weather forecasting is significant, and the book does a good job of showing how those contributions impact the world today.

While some sections move a bit slowly, overall it’s a compelling read that blends memoir, science, and social impact. It’s not flashy, but it’s meaningful. A solid read for anyone interested in climate science, personal perseverance, or the quiet power of long-term dedication.

3.5 Stars

Many thanks to NetGalley for giving me the opportunity to read A Billion Butterflies: A Life in Climate And Chaos Theory by Jagadish Shukla.

Shukla immediately captured my attention and imagination as I read the prologue of his beautifully written story. It is hard to describe this book because it accomplishes so much: it is Shukla’s memoir. But it is also a history of weather forecasting, a glimpse into the culture of a part of India, an introduction and clarification of the forces driving climate change, a clear description of the process and challenges of scientific discovery—it is a masterpiece.
Throughout the book, Shukla willingly presents himself and shows readers his values and struggles. He shares his significant accomplishments, discusses his occasional errors, and does both with a humility and grateful acknowledgement of the opportunities that were given to him throughout his life. I have a new respect for and understanding of weather forecasting. Many thanks, Dr. Shukla.

The science of weather prediction has come far just in my lifetime. No more having to predict rain by the ache in my knee. Dr Jagadish Shukla's beginnings would leave you thinking he'd never be a leader in the science. With no science background and little resources, he has risen to be the #1 expert. Reading the challenges he faced and the results of his work is fascinating to anyone whose livelihood depends on the accurate prediction of the weather. I live in Oklahoma, one of the most weather impacted states in the US. This man has made a difference in so many lives, he really deserves more recognition.

A Billion Butterflies: A Life in Climate and Chaos Theory by Dr. Jagadish Shukla, is part history, part memoir, and climate science nonfiction. Shukla seamlessly weaves in the science and history of climate science and his life story, and the reader gets some information on Indian culture as well. The science is accessible for a layperson such as me, and provides engaging explanations for such concepts as “The Butterfly Effect.”

I had the opportunity to read the book and listen to the audiobook side by side. The narration by Shahjehan Khan, provides an seamless, flawless and engaging experience, making the science and history as consumable, as the life story, coming from modest means to becoming a highly respected activist and scientist.

Thank you to Macmillan Audio and St. Martin’s Press for the opportunity to listen to this ALC and read the eARC. All opinions are my own.

Book Rating: 5 Stars
Audiobook Rating: 5 Stars
Pub Date: Apr 22 2025

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#ABillionButterflies
#DrJagadishShukla
#ShahjehanKhan
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#Biography
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#ClimateScience
#netgalley

Meteorologist and climate scientist Dr. Jagadish Shukla was a climate-change skeptic for years. What led him to change his mind? He recalls this and his life in his autobiography, "A Billion Butterflies: A Life in Climate and Chaos Theory".

His interest in weather forecasting stemmed from a practical need. Growing up in a rural village in India, life depended on the weather. The monsoon rains had a great impact on everyone’s economic well-being. Wouldn’t it be great to be able to accurately forecast when the rains would hit, how long they would last and how wet they would be?

Studying in the United States provided such as culture shock to him. I found this story as fascinating as his journey as a climate scientist. However, this book is more than an autobiography. Shukla explains the history of weather forecasting, and his own discoveries. I found this too detailed for my taste, but still informative. He learned to make seasonal predictions based on ocean and land-boundary conditions. If they could predict an El Niño, then they could save lives and livelihoods just like predicting monsoons.

He shares to the reader how he eventually became a climate change believer. Through his research, he realized how devastating climate change could be. This is from many sources, such as massive deforestation, and carbon dioxide pumped into the air. He was demonized by many, which is a warning on how far reaching the influence of the fossil-fuel industry is.

True to its title, "A Billion Butterflies" introduces readers to Chaos Theory and the Butterfly Effect—concepts that underscore the interconnectedness of global weather patterns and small environmental changes. Though the depth of these concepts may appeal to a niche audience, the general message should appeal to all of us.

(This review will be posted on UnderratedReads on April 22, 2025)

I will admit that I am a big meteorology nerd but embarrassingly was not familiar with Jagadish Shukla. This was a fascinating book about his work as a scientist and professor after starting from a small village in India wondering why some years the monsoon rains did not arrive. What if there was a way to predict the arrival of these rains which were so important for the lives of the villagers?

This book traces his path from India to the United States and across several universities where he studied and modeled meteorology that we use today in weather prediction (including an answer to the monsoon question). The author makes the concepts easy to understand in this book so you don't have to be a scientist to pick up this book. I hope that more people get to know this man's story.

A Billion Butterflies by Dr. Jagadish Shukla is an amazing true story of the man behind modern weather prediction.
This memoir was so interesting and very well informed.
I was very surprised at how much I actually enjoyed reading this book.