Elsa Vargas has experienced two major traumas in her life - and perhaps the worst thing is that in the second case, nobody believed her.

After Elsa's first child was a stillborn baby girl, everyone believed that she was still traumatized when she insisted that her second baby had been wrongly placed with another family by the hospital shortly after birth, because she was convinced that the baby she was given did not look like the newborn boy she had briefly held.

And as the years passed, much as she loved her son Bird, Elsa could not disregard the nagging feeling that Bird was nothing like the rest of his family. So, when a boy with the same birthday as Bird, who bears an uncanny resemblance to her younger son (namely, Bird's younger brother) shows up in the class she teaches at school, Elsa has to struggle to convince herself that Thomas is not in fact her biological son...

Unsurprisingly, things get complicated fast, and with all the events that ensue, the reader is taken on a fascinating journey through Elsa's family life, her marriage, her experiences of motherhood, and the questions of whether nurture is in fact more important than nature.

I loved this book, and I think anyone who is interested in society, relationships, and questions of ethics and contemporary issues will find it fascinating. Highly recommended.

"The Probable Son" is a book that really hit home for me as a mom. It follows a mother's emotional rollercoaster as she goes through pregnancy, parenthood, loss, and doubting herself. It reminded me of the thoughts we all have as mothers, second-guessing our gut feelings and constantly worrying if we're doing our best. Even though the story made me feel for her, I couldn't help but worry about how things would turn out. But, let me tell you, the twist at the end really caught me by surprise! This book was impossible to put down until I finished it.

The Probable Son takes us on a whirlwind of a journey through one mother's spiral through questioning the son she brought home versus a young boy in her class who she believes could be her son.

Our main protagonist is Elsa Vargas, a middle school math teacher, who has struggled with loss in her life. After giving birth to her oldest son, whom is nicknamed Bird, she struggles to reconcile this now teenage boy with the baby she first laid eyes on in the hospital. When a young student in her class begins to resemble that of her younger son, it causes Elsa to believe that this student could potentially be her son, further proving what she has believed all along: that her son was switched at birth.

The book speaks on mental health, and the struggles one goes through after experiencing an immense loss. It goes through all the stages of grief, and it's refreshing to see Elsa, along with her family, come to terms with such a tragic situation that had come upon them. It also raises the question on how much you can trust your partners, your children, and your extended family, the questions that remain unanswered after so long. It really is an interesting journey that Cindy Jiban takes us on.

Though not my normal genre, I was thrilled to be given the opportunity to read this novel by Netgalley, Lake Union Publishing and Cindy Jiban, so for that, I sincerely thank you. It was an honor to go on this journey with Elsa, to see her come to terms with what is eventually the truth of her situation, how she handled the macabre with not only herself, but with her family and the community she lives in.

The opinions above are that of my own.

A Probable Son is a thought-provoking book that explores family, motherhood, and relationships. The story follows Elsa, a middle school teacher and mother of two, who has long carried the unsettling belief that the baby she gave birth to 14 years ago was switched in the hospital nursery. Her husband and sister dismissed her concerns as confusion, but Elsa never quite shook the feeling. When a student in her class who happens to share her son’s birthday begins to resemble her youngest, her suspicions resurface and intensify.

At times I found Elsa frustrating, as she handled situations differently than I might have, but that also made her feel more real and complex. I could understand her struggle even when I disagreed with her choices. The book kept me engaged, raising fascinating questions about truth, perception, and maternal instinct. A strong and compelling debut.

Thank you to the publisher and NetGalley for providing the arc in exchange for an honest review.

This was an amazing book. When a mother thinks she is raising the wrong son she doesn't want to bother the situation. Then one day in her classroom seems familiar she realizes that might be son. A really great book that kept me intrigued the whole time.

The Probable Son, Cindy Jiban’s debut novel, is a fantastic, thought-provoking family drama that explores the possibility that two babies were switched at birth.

I’ve never had children, but I can imagine the gamut of emotions Elsa Vargas vacillated between as her doubt about her baby grew. Jiban placed me in the hospital ward with the Hamiltons at Bird’s birth, so I watched her insecurity develop and was therefore on Elsa’s side from the beginning. Knowing that she’d been through so much already, I wanted her to be wrong. Needing the answers as much as she needed them kept me turning pages. Jiban’s skill at showing readers both sides of the question added to my enjoyment of this book.

I absolutely loved this fantastic debut that questions if seeking the truth is worth the risk of losing something you treasure and explores what it means to ‘be there’ for someone.

The topic of ‘gleeking’ became a heated and laughter-filled discussion around the dinner table for a couple of nights.

I’d recommend this one! It doesn't read like a debut.

I was gifted this copy and was under no obligation to provide a review.

The Probable Son by Cindy Jiban was my first read from this author, and it’s a quietly devastating, emotionally rich novel that explores the fragile boundaries of maternal love and identity. The story centers on Elsa Vargas, a math teacher and mother who has secretly believed for fourteen years that her son Bird was mistakenly switched at birth. Bird is gentle, optimistic, and unlike anyone else in their extroverted, skeptical family. Elsa has long buried her doubts, choosing love over truth—until a student named Thomas enters her classroom and upends everything. Thomas shares Bird’s birthday and bears an uncanny resemblance to Elsa’s younger son, triggering a painful suspicion: Thomas may be her biological child.

Elsa’s internal conflict drives the novel’s tension. Her growing obsession with Thomas leads her on a clumsy, emotionally fraught journey to uncover the truth, all while risking the bond she’s built with Bird. The twist isn’t just in the potential revelation of a birth switch it’s in the emotional fallout of what that truth could mean. Jiban crafts Elsa with nuance and empathy, portraying her as a woman torn between biology and the lived experience of motherhood. Bird, too, is a beautifully rendered character—his quiet resilience and intuitive nature make the stakes feel heartbreakingly real.

The conclusion is tender, ambiguous, and deeply human. Jiban doesn’t offer a simple resolution, instead allowing Elsa and the reader to sit with the complexity of love, identity, and choice. Whether or not the truth is confirmed, the emotional journey reshapes Elsa’s understanding of what it means to be a mother. For a first-time reader, The Probable Son is a poignant and thought-provoking introduction to Cindy Jiban’s storytelling, one that lingers long after the final page.

Initially when I began reading the book I was a bit confused however as the book continued and the prologue began making more sense , I was hooked on the book and I was so eager to finish the book to discover what will happen however the plot twist got me good . Overall a really good debut with a unique plot.

I was really intrigued by the premise of this book and really wanted to like it because it sounded great. However, the actual execution just missed the mark for me. I found myself getting incredibly annoyed by the main character and her actions really started to verge on creepy. Not only that, but her obsession with the switched baby theory caused her to definitely emotionally neglect her son. I understand that there is a mental health aspect in play here as well but it was hard for me to read. Especially when the whole scenario could have been very easily avoided by a couple of tests before leaving the hospital (or literally any time after that).

Thanks to NetGalley and the publisher for the advanced copy in exchange for my honest review.

The Probable Son brings us into the world of Elsa Vargas, middle school teacher and mother of two sons. Elsa is clever, witty, opinionated, and deeply dedicated to her 8th grade math students. We find out early that Elsa and her spouse lost their first child, who was stillborn. That grief is part of their past and present journey. Ambiguous events during the birth of their oldest son, Baird (who they call Bird), raised questions for Elsa as to whether there may have been an inadvertent switch of their son with another baby. She buries her doubts as her love for the baby in her arms deepens. Fast forward to Bird as an 8th grader and Elsa’s uncertainties reemerge. This narrative engaged me right away. The characters felt genuine and multifaceted-like folks I might encounter in my community. Elsa, in particular—teacher, mother, educator, and friend—is portrayed with convincing complexity, as she navigates the tensions between her roles, the specific nuances of her personality, and her underlying questions. Her approach to grief is unconventional, at times even unsettling, yet deeply human. As the story unfolds, readers will find themselves caring for the Vargus-Hamilton family not because they lead a perfect life, but because their vulnerabilities are relatable. The plot line contains several unexpected twists and the narrative moves forward effectively. In contrast to my usual patterns of reading in the evening, I found myself carrying this book around and squeezing in a few more pages throughout the day. This is a debut novel I recommend highly to adult readers of all ages!

Note: I received early access to this book as an advanced reader.

I did not finish this book. It was ponderous and the premise, the delusion of a mother who thought her baby was switched at birth with another, was ridiculous. Equally ridiculous was what happened when she thought she had found her “real” son in the middle school where she taught, the subsequent drama around that, I subplot about a Boyd’s group that may or may not require a belief in a higher power, and, finally, the actual parentage of the boy she thought was hers.

I received this book as an ARC from NetGalley and the publisher.

Elsa, mom and middle school teacher, thinks her son was switched at birth. At the start of the new school year, she thinks one of her new students is her biological son and goes on a crazy quest to prove it.

So here’s the thing… I was definitely hooked and the story kept my interest the whole time. BUT. I found it very hard to like Elsa. Now this could definitely be because I’m not a mother. Maybe a mom would find it easier to understand her motivations throughout the book. But I was just frustrated by her and found her actions incredibly selfish. She didn’t think about how her actions would impact Bird at all, not to mention the rest of her family and Thomas and his family. Everything she did was for her alone. She tried to justify her actions to herself every which way and claimed it was all for the love of her child but it was literally all for her. It just made me so angry.

I will acknowledge that it’s clear Elsa does these things because of her past and the resulting mental health issues. Like I said, I’m not a mother so I won’t even pretend to imagine the pain she’s gone through. But that being said, I don’t have a lot of patience for adults who have mental health issues, have the means to, and still don’t seek help.

Thank you NetGalley and Lake Union Publishing for the advanced copy of this book.

Elsa gives birth to a baby boy and has a quick bonding moment and then finally gets him in her arms and she is shocked to find this isn’t her baby…..no one believes her so she pretends and forms the bond with the baby. Fast forward years later…Elsa is a teacher and one of her students reminds her so much of what she thinks her real baby would be and is convinced he could be her true son.

I loved the concept but I felt like the story dragged on, we were given so much unnecessary story that too away from the story and felt like it wrapped up fast and some things were left hanging.

I just finished this book, and honestly, it was an interesting idea but not as moving as I hoped. The story of a mother thinking she’s been raising the wrong son had so much potential, and I liked the emotional moments between the characters. But some parts felt slow, and I couldn’t fully connect with the writing or the pacing. Still, it made me think about what truly makes a family, so I’d give it 3 stars.

Elisa has always somewhat thought she might have brought home the wrong baby from the hospital. Her oldest son, Bird, is not at all like the rest of the family, including his younger brother.
The “probable” son, is the opposite of the biblical parable of the Prodigal Son, viewing the circumstances through the lens of modern psychology. The “probable” son stays, complies and performs, revealing how this often-overlooked person embodies a different kind of a struggle, including the hidden cost of being “the good one.”
Jiban challenges readers to reconsider what it means to be faithful, and how grace can transform even those who seem to have done everything “right.”
This quote stood out to me: “The probable son doesn’t run away, but he’s not truly home either.”
I received a complimentary copy of this book. All comments and opinions are my own.

Thank you, Lake Union Publishing, for providing the copy of The Probable Son by Cindy Jiban. I love debut novels, but I’m on the fence about this one. I loved the premise, and how the book started out. I had a harder time connecting with and caring about Elsa. What she does to try to find out if Thomas is her son was over-the-top and implausible, especially for a teacher, and made the book hard to stay engaged with. Other than that, the book had promise, and I liked the rest of her family and that big reveal. 3.5 stars rounded up to 4.

Being switched at birth was such a scary idea especially for the parents, this book was everything that I was wanting and enjoyed about this type of book. It was suspenseful and had that feel that I was wanting and enjoyed the overall feel of this. Cindy Jiban has a great style for the genre and I cared about what was happening with the characters.

Ever since I read The Push, I've been in love with books about motherhood. Since it's a topic outside my purview, it's interesting to see how it's handled in books. This one was no different. The whole thing about her suspecting her son was switched made the story so addictive, I couldn't put it down until I found out what really happened—if she went crazy or something. I highly recommend it.
Thank you NetGalley for the eArc and the author.

I received an advance review copy for free, and I am leaving this review voluntarily. Elsa is a teacher and a mother who has always been convinced her son was switched at birth. When she meets a student that looks like he could be her biological son she gets serious about getting to the bottom of it. The chaos and secrets in this book were heart wrenching and this plot was packed with all different emotions I felt as I read. What could happen to the son she thought was hers and has loved for all these years? This book grapple with impossible feelings and really had me pulled in and invested. The plot was genius to begin with but the way the characters were developed and interacted was beautifully done. This is a book to treasure forever.