The Demogra-fate Hypothesis

Is demographic aging, as seen on Earth, the natural death of all intelligent species in the Universe

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Pub Date 04 Oct 2021 | Archive Date 31 May 2022


The demogra-fate hypothesis was first published in a "Philosophy Now" Oct/Nov 2016 article. Nguyen Ba Thanh runs the blog Demographic Fate which chronicles and tries to make sense of worldwide population aging and decline. A full-time trend analyst, he lives in Hanoi, Vietnam.

“If all else—bodies, memories, stars, the universe itself—ages and dies, can intelligent species exist forever? Isn’t population aging on Earth the observable end of an inescapable life cycle? Does a natural aging fate still await all cosmic civilizations that survive youthful risks of accidents or ecological misdeeds?”

“When homo sapiens become fossils on this lost oasis, somewhere in a nearby galaxy, a species will unknowingly evolve to boost brainpower, develop technology, solve hunger, enjoy fun, have fewer offspring… It is yet another ordinary day in infinity. There’s no good, bad, or purpose anywhere: it's all wild nature.”

“Your species having an inexorable life cycle is hardcore fatalism, but so is your ephemeral alien body dying against the mind’s hope. Make peace with the nature in and around you. Find beauty in your fleeting moment.”

The demogra-fate hypothesis was first published in a "Philosophy Now" Oct/Nov 2016 article. Nguyen Ba Thanh runs the blog Demographic Fate which chronicles and tries to make sense of worldwide...

Advance Praise

"... a fascinating analysis that’s unflinching and perceptive." - Kirkus Reviews

"... a fascinating analysis that’s unflinching and perceptive." - Kirkus Reviews

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It’s a very interesting read, you can’t even flip through it quickly, you have to go back and forth to some thoughts to understand the processes that lead to, or could lead to, the extinction of humanity due to aging.

According to the writer, aging and then death is a natural process that inevitably leads to extinction. Unfortunately, as described, this process is also being accelerated by current human societies. The reasons for this are emancipation, the emergence and development of feminism, the disappearance of the original role of the family, technical progress, the transformation of social relations, liberalism, bad democracy, which is why we choose bad politicians who only follow a trend and offer short-term solutions.

That is, the extinction of humanity is inevitable. The only question is when this will happen, due to aging, or a natural disaster. According to the writer's prediction, the process of aging has already begun, and migration can only delay, but not stop, this. Unfortunately, we are now living in an era where migration is placing a heavy burden on us, on our workers, as we need to sustain large masses in order to have a hopeful future for the population in our countries to grow and the average age to fall. Unfortunately, this has unpredictable/foreseeable consequences that will fundamentally transform the societies of these countries. It doesn’t seem to be the best or not in the direction we want. But this has been decided by someone who thinks this social transformation is a desirable tool to prevent aging. However, it is also clear from this book that this will delay extinction by no more than a decade or two.

As described in the book, extinction could only be stopped by reversing the course of history, abolishing liberalism, democracy, feminism, birth control, technical and technological progress. That is, we would consider the interests of humanity instead of the interests of individual people. And that interest would be survival, a long-term, indefinite reproduction. Such a society still exists, and the population of this society is being integrated into the society of developed liberal countries in the hope that they can retain the benefits of modern society while reducing the average age. Unfortunately, this experiment does not seem to be successful, because the societies of these countries are moving in the wrong direction, and even the average age is declining only slightly in a generation, but then the reproduction of the integrated population is also greatly reduced. Therefore, the original goal will not be achieved while the societies of these countries are collapsing dramatically.

Our lives will end in years, in decades. Mankind's life will end in a few milleniums. Do we have to worry about that? After all, we are no longer affected. However, it is in our DNA that it is in our best interest for our offspring to be born. We should strengthen this inner urge so that humanity can survive as long as possible and extinct later.

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