The Signals Are Talking

Is your antenna in tune? Are you looking forward and trying to scan what the future may bring, or are you looking the other way and missing out on what may be the next competitive advantage, new trend or industry breakthrough? What signals are you scanning for?

This interesting book seeks to get you thinking about the future, trying to identify signals emerging from the fringes about future mainstream trends, demands and needs. Clearly it can be an inexact science with no guarantees, yet the author believes that you can easily learn how to identify these faint signals and then move to either being ready to capitalise on a developing situation or at least be ready for it. No being taken by surprise here. The harder part is possibly doing things with the gathered intelligence; that falls down to you...

As well as looking forward, the author examines cases of one-time leaders who managed to be toppled because they didn’t, or couldn’t, react to impending changes. Not everybody can be a global leader, of course, although many companies can still feed from the broader ecosystem and its requirements, if only they are ready for it. So learn by the mistakes or inaction of others.
There is a six-step process behind the author’s learning procedure, although it is far from a quick-fix, tick-box approach. You have to do a lot of research, analysis and maybe even change your way of thinking and working. The process is not a one-time process either, in itself, since once you have learned the new way of thinking and doing you will still have your ongoing intelligence-gathering and analysis activities to undertake as well as any possible implementation work. Reserve a lot of time, it can be a necessity on many levels.

Throughout the book there is a sort-of chatty narrative going on, which makes things a little easier on the mind, as a lot of useful, essential information is being disgorged from the book into your brain. It is a book that requires your focus, despite it being accessible and easy-to-read. At the end is an excellent glossary of concepts and terms that can be very helpful along with references for further and deeper reading.

Many people may try and fail with their attempts at looking into the future, through no fault of this book, yet those who persevere and succeed can stand to gain tremendously or, at least, be aware of changes that could lead to otherwise massive losses. Definitely a book to consider.

The Signals Are Talking, written by Amy Webb and published by Perseus Books. ISBN 9781610396660. YYYY

Consider me mind-boggled!

But it's not for the first time. That happened somewhere around 1970, when I tried to wrap my head around Alvin Toffler's "Future Shock" (followed by "The Third Wave" and "Power Shift." Then came books by John Naisbitt, such as "Megatrends 2000," and Faith Popcorn's "Clicking: 17 Trends That Drive Your Business And Your Life." Yes, folks, I eat this stuff up. And now, thanks to an advance copy in exchange for an honest review, comes this one - and it's made no less of an impression.

The author has developed a six-part process for forecasting - a way of evaluating new ideas being developed on the "fringe" (a.k.a. around the edges of society) that stand to affect us. Futurists, she says, listen to and interpret the signals that are "talking," looking for early patterns, or pre-trends. "Trends help us to understand change, which is an essential part of every organization's mandate," she writes. "Too often, leaders ignore the signals, wait too long to take action, or plan for only one scenario."

Descriptors like "probable," "plausible" and "possible" are used to generate concrete ideas about what's over the horizon. "We must think of trends as signposts that can illuminate the conditions we will likely encounter at some point in the future, even if that future is a century away," the author explains. "Organizations must track them if they are to create their preferred futures...seeing trends is a matter of looking for emerging changes at the fringe, within organizations, and in our societies."

In a nutshell, if it's possible to put it there, the book is about the importance of not being surprised by the future, offering a method for creating a path that leads to sustained success. Unlike some of the books mentioned above, it's not a list of what we can expect to happen in the next 10, 20 or 50 years; rather, it's a way to help ensure that organizations will be going strong throughout all those years to come.

Along the way, the author explains finer points such as the difference between something that's "trendy" and a "trend." No doubt it's a silly analogy, but if I interpret it anywhere near correctly, an Erector set is (or was) trendy, but the fact that children love to tear things down and build them up again is a trend that's likely to continue indefinitely. Harness your company's future to the first, and you may be out of business the minute a newer kid hits the building block; on the second, and you're likely to stay ahead of the curve.

Roadblocks to identifying the signals are discussed as well, such as the "duality dilemma" between left- and right-brain thinking (put another way, creativity vs. logic) and the need to look at things from both sides now. This I understand; I identify far more closely with the logic side, which most likely explains why I've enjoyed relative success as a journalist (just the facts, ma'am) but couldn't write a novel if my life depended on it. It's also, I'm thinking, one of the reasons I enjoyed this book so much; everything is laid out in an orderly, easy-to-understand manner.

That includes, for the record, a glossary of concepts and terms and a chapter-by-chapter list of footnoted references at the end. Highly recommended for anyone interested in expanding leadership skills (or like me, simply interested in the topic).